According to @milesdeutscher, the current market phase is mentally challenging as altcoins are bleeding while some traders profit from aster/plasma strategies, creating simultaneous losses and FOMO, source: Miles Deutscher on X, Sep 26, 2025. He cautions that social feeds are rife with survivorship bias, which can distort perception of realistic outcomes and lead to poor decision-making, source: Miles Deutscher on X, Sep 26, 2025. He warns that the worst responses now are giving up or revenge trading and advises refining one’s edge and focusing on asymmetric opportunities—setups with limited downside and larger upside—to navigate the drawdown, source: Miles Deutscher on X, Sep 26, 2025.

According to @balajis, the widely shared quartile chart suggesting many AI companies can reach 100 million ARR in about three and a half years is an extrapolation from growth rate buckets rather than an empirical cohort of roughly one thousand startups, which changes how investors should interpret the distribution of outcomes, source: @balajis on X, Sep 23, 2025. According to @balajis, a true cohort that includes the many AI startups that never reach one million ARR would show that achieving 100 million ARR in three and a half years remains exceptional and is likely in the top five to top one percent depending on how an AI startup is defined, source: @balajis on X, Sep 23, 2025. According to @balajis, he points to Midjourney and Cursor as examples on this trajectory and notes that Replit and OpenAI would not fit the three year window because they were founded earlier, source: @balajis on X, Sep 23, 2025. According to @balajis, reaching 72 million ARR in five years with strongly positive margins is also a phenomenal outcome and should not be treated as ordinary, source: @balajis on X, Sep 23, 2025. According to @balajis, traders in AI themed equities and tokens should treat extrapolated quartiles as aggressive scenarios rather than base cases, adjust screening and valuation frameworks for survivorship bias, and avoid assuming a 100 million in three and a half years ramp without high outlier probabilities, source: @balajis on X, Sep 23, 2025.